The Law of Shitty Clickthroughs at andrewchen
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Without a doubt, one of the key drivers of engagement for marketing is that customers respond to novelty.
The point is, humans seek novelty yet are pattern-recognition machines
Any product that is first to market has a limited window where they will enjoy unnaturally high marketing performance, until the competition enters, in which case everyone’s marketing efforts will degrade.
You can always get incrementally better performance out of your marketing by taking a nomad strategy – always keep developing new creative, testing new publishers, and so on.
In addition to doubling down on traditional forms of online advertising like banners, search, and email, it’s important to work hard to get to the next marketing channel while it’s uncontested.
After months of iterating on different marketing strategies, you finally find something that works. However, the moment you start to scale it, the effectiveness of your marketing grinds to a halt.
Law of Shitty Clickthroughs:
Over time, all marketing strategies result in shitty clickthrough rates
Novelty
Retargeter posted an interesting analysis on the Importance of Rotating Creatives, which showed how keeping the same ad creative led to declining CTRs over time:
Another important way to think about the available market for your product is in terms of the popular Technology Adoption Lifecycle, in which early adopters actively seek out your product, while the rest of the mainstream market needs a lot of convincing.
More scale means less qualified customers
In the TAL framework, the early market seeks out novelty, whereas the mainstream market just cares if you solve a problem for them.
The real solution: Discover the next untapped marketing channel
There are a few drivers for the Law of Shitty Clickthroughs, and here’s a summary of the top ones: Customers respond to novelty, which inevitably fades First-to-market never lasts More scale means less qualified customers
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