Why Most Published Research Findings Are False

Tags

Top Highlights

• Published research findings are sometimes refuted by subsequent evidence, with ensuing confusion and disappointment. Refutation and controversy is seen across the range of research designs, from clinical trials and traditional epidemiological studies [1–3] to the most modern molecular research [4,5]. There is increasing concern that in modern research, false findings may be the majority or even the vast majo

• First, let us define bias as the combination of various design, data, analysis, and presentation factors that tend to produce research findings when they should not be produced.

• Thus, other factors being equal,

• The pre-study probability of a relationship being true is R/(R + 1).

• Better powered evidence

• most research questions are addressed by many teams, and it is misleading to emphasize the statistically significant findings of any single team.

• instead of chasing statistical significance, we should improve our understanding of the range of R values—the pre-study odds—where research efforts operate