Sometimes, however, humans tend to claim after an event has occurred that they knew (or predicted) that it would happen all along. This phenomenon is known as hindsight bias
leads to incorrect or incomplete assumptions being made. In particular, it can lead to overconfidence in predictions and unnecessary risk-taking
Probability distributions are useful for making decisions based on the probability that a particular event of interest will occur
Forecasting and prediction models are used to calculate and predict future outcomes of an event
quantify uncertainty in estimation, while p-values (see Figure 7) are used to determine the level of significance of statistical tests, which allows you to reach probability-driven conclusions.
Regression analysis (see Figure 8) is used to model the relationship between variables.
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