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Sometimes, however, humans tend to claim after an event has occurred that they knew (or predicted) that it would happen all along. This phenomenon is known as hindsight bias

leads to incorrect or incomplete assumptions being made. In particular, it can lead to overconfidence in predictions and unnecessary risk-taking

Probability distributions are useful for making decisions based on the probability that a particular event of interest will occur

Forecasting and prediction models are used to calculate and predict future outcomes of an event

Confidence intervals

quantify uncertainty in estimation, while p-values (see Figure 7) are used to determine the level of significance of statistical tests, which allows you to reach probability-driven conclusions.

Regression analysis (see Figure 8) is used to model the relationship between variables.

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