there are no conclusions to be drawn. Every war is different
There is a playbook for war: Gold goes up, oil goes up, commodities go up, and stocks don’t always go down. But that’s just in the early stages. Early on in a war, there are fears of contagion, that the war will spread beyond borders and turn into something worse. And there are certainly fears of that today.
the war greatly increases the probability that we’ll have a cut very soon, perhaps in the next few months. But I am just talking my book on all this stuff.
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