Investing in Times of Uncertain Expected Returns
www.thediff.co/archive/investing-in-times-of-uncertain-expected-returns/?ref=the-diff-newsletter
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Antti Illmanen's Expected Returns is definitely not the first investment book anyone should read, but is probably the best foundational book for thinking about where returns come from. Illmanen asks you to set aside everything that might make you a better or worse investor—analytical skill, fast reflexes, great dealflow, etc.—and start by asking: when you put a dollar into a given asset class, what do you expect to make in a year, what's the variance, what does this correlate with, and why?
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